[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Dec             23 Dec             24 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours 
with a steadily decreased in the solar wind from 550 km/s to 
450 km/s. Solar activity should remain very low over the next 
three days although, there is a slight chance of a C-class x-ray 
flare due to Boulder region 10837. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2123 3311
      Darwin               9   2123 3312
      Learmonth            9   2123 3311
      Culgoora             7   1122 3311
      Canberra             7   1122 3311
      Hobart              10   -223 3311
      Casey(Ant)          14   ---4 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16   4332 3243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled for 
the last 24 hours, except for high latitudes overnight. High 
latitudes showed active to minor storm levels mainly due to southward 
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field and geoeffective 
coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal during 
the next 3 days, other than isolated cases of sporadic E and 
spread F. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Dec    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Dec    18    near predicted monthly values 
23 Dec    18    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Dec    18    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Spread F was observed in the Hobart area between 11-21 
UT and isolated cases of sporadic E were noted in the earily 
morning hours at mid latitudes. HF conditions are expected to 
remain mostly normal in the Aus/NZ regions during the next 3 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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