[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 25 09:54:48 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Low Low to moderate Moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the previous 24 hours.
Region 798 produced a C4.7-class flare, which reached maximum
at 0706Z. Region 798 will rotate off the visible disk today,
however there remains a chance of an M-class flare from this
active region. Region 800 remains a BETA magnetic class sunspot
group and has only a slight chance of producing an M-class flare.
Two strong shocks in the solar wind impacted on the Earth in
the past 24 hours.These were consistent with the predicted arrival
time of the two CMEs which occurred on the 22nd of August. The
solar wind remains elevated after the passage of the two CMEs
most likely as a result of a coronal hole wind stream.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0537UT on
24 Aug.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
24/0735UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Unsettled to severe storm.
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 56 2457 6554
Learmonth 60 3357 6564
Culgoora 52 2356 7454
Canberra 54 2467 -454
Hobart 87 2358 7664
Casey(Ant) 49 3566 5454
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 125 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 50
Planetary 125
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 3222 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 40 Minor storm
26 Aug 25 active
27 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 22 August and
is current for interval 24-25 August. Geomagnetic avtivity was
unsettled on the 24th of August until the arrival of two CMEs
at 0539Z and 0828Z at ACE satellite location producing sudden
impulses in the geomagnetic field. The second CME contained a
strongly southward IMF Bz component causing major-severe storm
geomagnetic conditions, which lasted for 6-8 hours. IMF Bz dropped
below -50nT following the second CME. Geomagnetic activity is
currently at minor storm levels and is expected to remain at
that level for today, gradually decreasing to active on 26th
August and unsettled conditions on the 27th of August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 22 08 2005 2100UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Fair Fair-Poor Poor(PCA)
26 Aug Fair Fair Fair-Poor
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF communications conditions were degraded in response
to the geomagnetic storm which commenced following the second
CME sudden impulse at ~0800Z, and remained poor for 12 hours.
Potential for further SWF over the next 24 hours is low-moderate.
The Polar Cap Absorption event in progress is expected to end
today with HF conditions at high latitudes expected to return
to fair by 26 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 8 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
26 Aug 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 23 August
and is current for interval 24-25 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 82200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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