[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 24 09:56:14 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.7 1447UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate over the previous 24
hours. Region 798 produced a M2.7-class flare, which reached
maximum at 1444Z. Associated westward directed CME was detected
on SOHO LASCO which may cause a glancing blow late on the 25th
of August UT. Expect 22 August CME shocks to arrive today. Region
798 is growing in area and complexity as it rotates off the visible
disk, presently classed as a DKC BETA-GAMMA-DELTA spot group.
Expect isolated M-class flares to continue. Solar wind should
remain slightly elevated due to Earth passing through small coronal
hole wind stream, duration one day. Noted an eastward directed
CME, not geoeffective, commencing at 0800UT possibly associated
with returning region 792 or 796.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1936UT
on 23 Aug.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
23/0025UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 2223 2112
Learmonth 6 2123 2111
Culgoora 6 2123 2112
Canberra 7 2223 2112
Hobart 7 2223 2211
Casey(Ant) 11 3333 2123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12 3412 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 30 Active to Minor storm
25 Aug 45 Minor storm
26 Aug 25 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 22 August and
is current for interval 24-25 August. Active conditions possibly
building to minor storms expected today in response to CME impact
and likely to continue on to the 25th of August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal-fair Normal Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 22 08 2005 2100UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Fair Fair Poor(PCA)
25 Aug Fair Fair-Poor Poor
26 Aug Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Potential for further SWF over the next 24 hours is
moderate. The Polar Cap Absorption event in progress is expected
to continue in the high latitude regions today in response to
the solar proton event. CME shock is expect to arrive later in
the day and may degrade HF communications.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 25 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 20 depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 23 August
and is current for interval 24-25 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 152000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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