[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Apr             01 May             02 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   1222 3332
      Learmonth           11   1222 4332
      Culgoora             9   1222 3332
      Canberra             9   1222 3332
      Hobart               9   1221 3332
      Casey(Ant)           9   1222 3332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4   0011 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
01 May    21    active 
02 May    42    Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 29 April and 
is current for interval 1-2 May. Strongly disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 May      Normal-Fair    Fair-Poor      Poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Apr    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
01 May    25    Near predicted monthly values 
02 May    15    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    35700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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