[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr:  Low

Flares: C3/0236UT

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Apr             30 Apr             01 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Region 756 exhibited continued growth and some magentic 
complexity over the past 24 hours, with a C-class flare at 0236UT. 
Solar wind speed remained between 330 and 370 km/sec over the 
past 24 hours. The north south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field remained around neutral. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1001 1100
      Learmonth            4   3101 2110
      Culgoora             0   1000 1000
      Canberra             0   0000 1100
      Hobart               1   0001 1101
      Casey(Ant)           3   1121 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4   1001 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Apr     4    Quiet 
30 Apr     6    Quiet 
01 May    15    unsettled to active, with isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
COMMENT: Isolated minor storm periods are possible 1-2 May due 
to recurrent coronal hole activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
01 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-fair     
COMMENT: HF conditions may decline at mid and high lats over 
the period 1-2 May, in association with forecast geomagnetic 
activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Apr    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Apr    30    near predicted monthly values 
30 Apr    30    near predicted monthly values 
01 May    30    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    49400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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