[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 16 09:29:01 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low during the last
24 hours. No significant event was observed during this
period. The solar wind speed remained between 480 and 520
km/s (approx.) almost the whole day today. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed
minor fluctuations on both sides of the normal value
throughout the UT day- staying slightly southwards for
relatively longer periods. Solar activity is expected to
remain at very low levels during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 2333 3321
Learmonth 10 2232 3321
Culgoora 8 2222 3311
Canberra 12 2333 3321
Hobart 12 2333 3321
Casey(Ant) 15 3433 3322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19 4533 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 10 Quiet to unsettled
17 Apr 8 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
18 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic activity
is expected to gradually decline during the next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
at most mid and low latitude locations during the next three
days. However, minor to mild degradations in HF conditions
may be observed on high latitudes during the next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 35 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
17 Apr 37 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
18 Apr 40 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in
most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 537 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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