[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 15 09:38:06 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low during the
last 24 hours. Only a few low B-class flares were observed.
The coronal hole effect seems to be weakening now as the
solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 560 km/s
to 500 km/s (approx.) during the UT day today. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed
minor to mild fluctuations on both sides of the normal value
throughout the UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels during the next three days. Region
752(N01E42), which is the largest region on the currently
visible solar disk, holds potential for C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet to active with
isolated minor storm periods at some locations.
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 17 3433 4322
Learmonth 18 3333 5232
Culgoora 12 2323 4222
Canberra 17 3424 4322
Hobart 17 3424 4322
Casey(Ant) 22 4543 3323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 26 2444 5544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 12 Mostly unsettled.
16 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
17 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic
activity is expected to gradually decline during the
next two days. The geomagnetic activity is expected to
remain at mostly unsettled levels on 15 April, quiet
to unsettled on 16 April and mostly quiet on 17 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
at most mid and low latitude locations during the next three
days. However, minor to mild degradations in HF conditions
may be observed on high latitudes during the next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day with periods
of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 38 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
16 Apr 40 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
17 Apr 42 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 576 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 200000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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