[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 6 09:55:15 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Apr             07 Apr             08 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
Region 747 producing a C1.1 class event at 2005UT as well as 
some minor B-class events. Further C-class events are possible 
with forecasted Low activity conditions for the next 2 days. 
Region 747 has not displayed any further growth in size or change 
in magnetic complexity. Solar wind velocity was 550km/s at 0000UT, 
and then jumped to 650km/s at 0230UT and then gradually fell 
back to 600km/s over the UT day. At the same time as this sharp 
increase in solar wind speed, the solar wind temp and density 
both fell. There was also a fall in magnitude of the total interplanetary 
magnetic field value, while the Bz component remained south for 
the entire UT day. Solar wind paramters are expected to remain 
at elevated levels for the next 2 days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 05 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      22   5434 3323
      Learmonth           24   5335 3333
      Culgoora            20   5434 3222
      Canberra            25   5444 4322
      Hobart              25   5444 4323
      Casey(Ant)          18   4433 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              69   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             50                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             17   1222 2445     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Apr    17    active 
07 Apr    11    Unsettled 
08 Apr     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 4 April and 
is current for interval 4-6 April. Moderately disturbed conditions 
expected during forecast period, isolated minor storm periods 
may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal-Poor    Poor           Poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Apr    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Apr    15    Depressed 30% 
07 Apr    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
08 Apr    35    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 4 April 
and is current for interval 4-6 April. Depressed conditions observed 
for Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day for 05April. Current 
trend for pre local dawn MUF values indicates that normal to 
enhanced conditions for all Aus/NZ regions are possible during 
local day, but with possibility of depressed conditions occuring 
during UT day, due to current geomagnetic storm conditions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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