[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 5 09:50:15 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low, with no significant flare
activity observed. Similar conditions are expected for the next
24 hours. Region 747 has shown a small increase in its overall
area while retaining the same level of magnetic complexity. Chance
of an isolated C-class flare is possible in the next few days.
The solar wind velocity continued to increase from 360km/s at
0000UT to 600km/s at the time of this report, consistent with
the anticipated arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) fluctuated between +/-10nT over the UT day, with a predominently
southward orientation for the latter half of the UT day. Solar
wind paramters are expected to remain at elevated levels for
the next 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 1232 3435
Learmonth 15 2232 3445
Culgoora 8 1221 2334
Canberra 12 1231 3435
Hobart 9 0221 2435
Casey(Ant) 16 3343 3336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 142 (Severe storm)
Hobart 60 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 30 Active to Minor storm
06 Apr 25 active
07 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 4 April and
is current for interval 4-6 April. Elevated solar wind parameters
due to the coronal hole high speed stream have created Unsettled
to Minor Storm conditions. Bz was southward for the last half
of the UT day as geomagnetic activity increased. Unsettled to
Active periods are expected over the next 2 days with isolated
minor storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Fair Fair Fair-Poor
06 Apr Fair Fair Fair-Poor
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed over all latitudes during
the last 24 hours. Degraded conditions are expected, especially
at high latitudes, over the next 2 days due to geomagnetic storming
effects from the current geoeffective current coronal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Apr 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 4 April
and is current for interval 4-6 April. Normal HF conditions observed
over the last 24 hours. However an expected change is due today
with degraded HF conditions for the next 24-36 hours, with mild
to moderate depressions for Southern Aus/NZ regions. MUF depressions
of 20% below monthly normal possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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