[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 2 09:39:19 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low, with no significant flare
activity observed. Similar conditions are expected for the next
2 days. Region 747 grew in both magnetic complexity and overall
size during the last 24 hours. The solar wind velocity fell from
460km/s to be 400km/s at the time of this report. The north south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was predominantly
north for the UT day, with only a brief southward period from
0330UT and 0700UT. Solar wind paramters are expected to increase
over the next 24 hours due to a recurring coronal hole moving
into geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 2231 1121
Learmonth 6 2231 1121
Culgoora 5 1231 1111
Canberra 5 1230 1122
Hobart 4 2230 0011
Casey(Ant) 12 3432 1132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 1332 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 20 active
03 Apr 30 Active to Minor storm
04 Apr 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 29 March and
is current for interval 1-3 April. Mostly Unsettled conditions
expected over the next 24 hours, with the chance of Active periods
due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Apr Fair Fair Fair-Poor
04 Apr Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Mild degradation at high latitudes expected from 02-04
Apr due to coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
03 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 29 March
and is current for interval 2-4 April. A change in HF conditions
is expected with periods of moderate depressions possible over
the next 24hours, for Southern Aus/NZ regions till 04Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 68400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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