[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low, 
with no significant flare activity observed. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 2 days. Solar wind parameters remain 
unchanged, but are expected to increase over the next 24 hours 
due to a recurring coronal hole moving into geoeffective position. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 31 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   1321 1221
      Learmonth            7   1221 1332
      Culgoora             6   1321 1221
      Canberra             6   1321 1221
      Hobart               8   1331 1231
      Casey(Ant)           9   2431 1222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   2342 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr    16    active 
02 Apr    30    Active to Minor storm 
03 Apr    30    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 29 March and 
is current for interval 1-3 April. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
are expected over the next 24 hours, with possible Active periods 
due to the arrival of a coronal hole's elevated solar wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
03 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Mild degradation at high latitudes expected from 01-04 
Apr due to coronal hole wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Mar    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
02 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
03 Apr    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 29 March 
and is current for interval 2-4 April. Generally good HF conditions 
expected for the next 24 hours, but with expected moderate depressions 
beginning for Southern Aus/NZ region over the period 01-03 Apr. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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