[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 21 09:52:06 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: A CME will probably impact the Earth during 22 September. An
increase in energetic ions has already been observed at the ACE
spacecraft from 0900UT as a precursor. Solar wind speeds have
been slightly elevated at 400km/sec for most of the day and then
declining to near 350km/sec at the end of the UT day. Density
has been average and then declining near the end of the day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 2233 2202
Darwin 10 2243 2212
Townsville 10 2243 2202
Learmonth 10 3233 3203
Culgoora 8 2233 2202
Canberra 8 2233 2201
Hobart 10 2243 2201
Casey(Ant) 12 3433 2212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1111 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 12 Unsettled
22 Sep 25 active
23 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 20 September
and is current for interval 22-23 September. Conditions are expected
to remain mostly quiet to unsettled for 21 September. IMF Bz
was southwards from approx 0600-1400UT resulting in active geomagnetic
conditions. A widespread geomagnetic excursion was observed at
0830UT. A CME associated with the M2-flare observed on 19 September
is expected to impact the Earth on 22 September, with storm levels
expected to follow.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : Began at 1950UT 19/09, Ended at 1220UT 20/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Sep Fair Fair Fair-Poor
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Conditions should be mostly normal for 21 September
for mid-low latitudes, with fair HF conditions for high latitudes.
The PCA effects previously observed at high latitudes appear
to have dissipated at inside the polar cap but stations at slightly
higher latitudes observed intermittent absorbtion of ionosonde
signals. Fair-poor conditions are expected during 22 September
for mid-high latitudes due to anticipated elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 40 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
22 Sep 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Sep 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 20 September
and is current for interval 22-23 September. Conditions should
be mostly normal for 21 September for mid-low latitudes, with
recovering HF conditions for high latitudes from the PCA event.
Fair-poor conditions are expected during 22 September for mid-high
latitudes due to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 20000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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