[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 20 09:56:24 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 1712UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Analysis of CME activity in association with the M2-flare
observed on 19 September was not possible due to lack of LASCO
imagery, however ground based observations suggest a CME will
impact the Earth during 22 September. Solar region 673 has a
small chance of producing further M-class flare activity. Solar
wind speeds continued to decline over the past 24 hours, down
to less than 400 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 1121 1113
Darwin 4 2121 1113
Townsville 4 2021 1123
Learmonth 1 1010 0113
Culgoora 2 1111 1012
Canberra 1 1010 0012
Hobart 1 1010 0012
Casey(Ant) 5 1231 1113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 16 5513 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Sep 6 Quiet
22 Sep 25 Unsettled to active with the chance of storm
periods.
COMMENT: The coronal hole solar wind stream has continued to
abate over the past 24 hours and conditions have returned to
quiet to unsettled levels. Conditions are expected to remain
mostly quiet to unsettled for 20-21 September. A CME associated
with the M2-flare observed on 19 September is expected to impact
the Earth on 22 September, with storm levels expected to follow.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 19 09 2004 1950UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Conditions should be mostly normal for 20-21 September
for mid-low latitudes, with poor HF conditions for high latitudes
for 20 September due to a PCA event currently in progress. Fair-poor
conditions are expected during 22 September for mid-high latitudes
due to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 50 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
21 Sep 50 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
22 Sep 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Conditions should be mostly normal for 20-21 September
for mid-low latitudes, with poor HF conditions for high latitudes
for 20 September due to a PCA event currently in progress. Fair-poor
conditions are expected during 22 September for mid-high latitudes
due to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 31700 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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