[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 04

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Nov             19 Nov             20 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low again over the past 24 hours. 
Solar wind conditions nominal. A spotless region has rotated 
onto the solar disk, now located at N15E58, appearing as an area 
of plage in Culgoora H-alpha imagery. In SOHO magnetograms it 
appeas to have a bipolar configuration. Another solar region 
is visible behind the limb in SOHO EIT 284 imagery. Either of 
these two regions smay be old 691. At this stage however, there 
appears to be little activity. The recent CME producer may be 
the second of these regions. This CME was behind the limb and 
not Earth directed. ACE EPAM precursor data channels are flat. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2222 1111
      Darwin               5   2222 1111
      Townsville           4   1222 1112
      Learmonth            4   2222 1100
      Culgoora             3   1222 1001
      Canberra             4   1222 1010
      Hobart               4   2222 1001
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-43 2113
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 NOV : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   0133 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Nov     6    Quiet 
19 Nov     6    Quiet 
20 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence ppatterns suggest that quiet geomagnetic 
conditions can be expected next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Nov    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Nov    55    near predicted monthly values 
19 Nov    55    near predicted monthly values 
20 Nov    55    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   115000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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