[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 17 10:35:33 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Region
700(N04W68) produced a few B-class and low C-class
flares, the largest event being a C1.4 at 0013UT. The
solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 390
to 450 km/s (approx.) by 1400UT and then showed a
gradual decrease to 410 by the time of this report.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained slightly positive during the first
two hours and then showed minor to moderate fluctuations
on both sides of the normal value during the rest of the
UT day. A non-earthward directed CME was observed
(0450UT/16 November) from the north-eastern limb and it
seems to have come from a region (possibly the previously
X-flare producing region 691) behind the limb which may
rotate onto the solar disk during the next two days. The
background X-ray flux has not risen yet and the sunspots
of this region are also not visible at this time. The
rotation of this region onto the solar disk may cause some
rise in the solar activity possibly to low to moderate
levels on 18 and 19 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 1223 3322
Darwin 8 1222 3322
Townsville 8 1223 2322
Learmonth 11 1223 4323
Culgoora 8 1222 3322
Canberra 13 1232 4422
Hobart 12 1332 4323
Casey(Ant) 15 2--4 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0010 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 6 Quiet
18 Nov 6 Quiet
19 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days. A weak
(21nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1446UT on 16 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day with periods
of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov 55 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
18 Nov 55 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
19 Nov 55 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most areas of Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 91400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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