[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 2 10:25:19 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/1F 0322UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar region 691 (N14W34) produced the M1 event, which
was associated with a Type II radio sweep (1000km/sec), observed
on the Culgoora Radio Spectrograph. A brief 10Mev proton event
also observed, origin unclear. Event data suggests late 03/early
04 shock arrival of the CME from this flare. SOHO/LASCO (space
based coronograph) confirms a halo front side CME with this event.
Further flares from 691 remain possible, although the regions
appears quiter this morning. Solar wind speed declined from 440
to 380 km/sec over the UT day, as weak coronal hole effects subside.
The north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
was near neutral over the UT day. ACE satellite EPAM data has
yet to show an increase in flux on its low energy ion data channels
(EPAM) which can be a shock precursor signature. Solar wind shocks
remain expected over the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 2112 3202
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 6 2112 3202
Learmonth 5 2012 3202
Culgoora 4 1111 3102
Canberra 6 2221 3202
Hobart 6 2221 3202
Casey(Ant) 8 ---3 2212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 58 (Unsettled)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 3212 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
03 Nov 20 active
04 Nov 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 30 October
and is current for interval 1-2 November. Coronal mass ejection(s)
expected to induce activity from remains expected 02-03 Nov.
Forecast activity level reduced due to short duration of solar events.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : Began at 0705UT 01/11, Ended at 1825UT 01/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
03 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Proton event degraded high latitude HF comms on 01 Nov.
Moderately degraded HF conditions now expected for 02 and 03
Nov at high latitudes, due to recent coronal mass ejections.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 60% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Absorption observed due to proton event.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov 60 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15%
03 Nov 25 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 25 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 30 October
and is current for interval 2-3 November. Depressed MUF forecast
slipped one day out as no shocks from recent coronal mass ejections
have arrived yet. Initially normal to good HF conditions are
now expected for today. Solar coronal mass ejections remain expected
to cause degraded conditions late 02-03 Nov for southern Aus/NZ
region only.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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