[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0517UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Mar             20 Mar             21 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66
COMMENT: Multiple B- to C-class flare activity has been observed 
mainly from regions 574 and newly numbered region 578. Region 
574 produced an impulsive M1 level flare at 0510UT. An impulsive 
M1 level flare was observed from an as yet un-numbered region 
(N016E078) at 2240UT. Both events were optically correlated on 
the Culgoora H-alpha imager. No radio sweep was observed in association 
with either event. Region 574 appears capable of further isolated 
M-class activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2322 2232
      Darwin               9   2322 2231
      Townsville           8   2321 2232
      Learmonth            7   2211 2232
      Culgoora             8   1321 3222
      Canberra            11   2322 3332
      Hobart              10   2322 3231
      Casey(Ant)          12   2433 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 MAR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1212 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
21 Mar    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels. Geomagnetic 
conditions have been predominantly quiet, with isolated unsettled 
intervals. There is a minor possibility of isolated disturbances 
today from a glancing blow from the NW directed CME sequence 
observed on 16-17 Mar. A narrow northern hemisphere coronal hole 
is moving into geoeffective position. Possible active intervals 
on days two and three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. Mild degradation 
possible 20-21 Mar for mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Mar    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with
      variable localised disturbances.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Spread-F conditions observed generally in Antarctic 
region. Regional MUFs should be mostly near predicted monthly 
values over the next few days. Mildly degraded HF communication 
conditions may be experienced local night hours 20-21 Mar S Aus/NZ 
regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   103000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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