[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Mar             19 Mar             20 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             105/54
COMMENT: Multiple B- to minor C-class flare activity was observed 
from a number of active regions. Region 572 produced a C1 level 
flare at 0930UT with associated Type II radio sweep and NW directed 
CME reported. No geoeffective consequence is expected. A narrow 
north polar extension coronal hole is now past central solar 
meridian. This narrow hole may produce a brief mild increase 
in solar wind speed around 19-20 Mar. Two new solar regions are 
expected to rotate onto the solar disk just north of the solar 
equator in coming days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2211 1122
      Darwin               3   2210 0123
      Townsville           3   2200 1022
      Learmonth            3   2101 0122
      Culgoora             3   2211 0022
      Canberra             4   2221 1023
      Hobart               4   2211 1022
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-32 1222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 MAR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3213 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Mar     6    Quiet 
19 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined to nominal levels. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northward, 
with a sustained period of southward bias after 15UT. Generally 
quiet geomagnetic conditions expected. A coronal hole may cause 
active periods during 19-20 Mar. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. Mild degradation 
possible 19-20 Mar for mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Mar    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Mar    65    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
19 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild night-time spread-F conditions observed S Aus region. 
Regional MUFs should be generally near predicted monthly values 
over the next few days. Mildly degraded HF communication conditions 
may be experienced local night hours 19-20 Mar S Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   135000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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