[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains steady at around 460km/sec 
over past 24 hours. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was mildly southward over the UT day. A solar 
filament has been reported to have disappeared from the face 
of the solar disk between 00UT and 13UT on 15 Mar. Whilst this 
filament was in a good geoeffective location (N22W28) a subsequent 
check of LASCO C3 imagery (space based coronagraph) showed no 
visible sign of a mass ejection. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3312 3233
      Darwin               6   2212 2222
      Townsville           8   3212 3223
      Learmonth           11   3212 3333
      Culgoora             7   2212 2232
      Canberra            12   3322 3333
      Hobart              10   3322 3222
      Casey(Ant)          17   34-4 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            75   (Active)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16   3344 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar     5    Quiet 
17 Mar    15    Quiet to unsettled, chance for active periods. 
18 Mar     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Generally quiet conditions expected. The solar filament 
may cause active periods on 17 Mar. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. Mild degradation 
possible 17 Mar for mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Mar    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Brief depressions may again be experienced after local 
dawn this morning for souther Aus/NZ region. MUFs are generally 
expected to return to near predicted monthly values as the day 
progresses. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 469 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    80200 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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