[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed steady at around 460km/sec over past 
24 hours. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was mildly southward over the UT day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   2234 4232
      Darwin              13   2224 4232
      Townsville          13   2224 4232
      Learmonth           12   2223 4232
      Culgoora            13   2224 4232
      Canberra            17   2234 4343
      Hobart              17   2334 4242
      Casey(Ant)          19   4443 3232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              73   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   3143 4422     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar     5    Quiet 
16 Mar     5    Quiet 
17 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Active period probably in association with mildly southward 
IMF conditions. Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected next few 
days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Mar    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar    30    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
16 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Brief depressions may be experienced after local dawn 
this morning for souther Aus/NZ region. MUFs are generally expected 
to return to near predicted monthly values as the day progresses. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 530 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    90100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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