[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speed currently fast at 700km/sec due to 
solar coronal hole. Continued elevated solar wind speeds expected 
for today. Moderately large solar region 570 located in the south-eastern 
solar quadrant has yet to produce any significant flare activity. 
However, there is some solar-radio activity visible on the Culgoora 
Radiospectrograph since dawn this morning, and this region may 
produce an isolated low level M class event. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 10 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   3554 3224
      Darwin              25   3464 3224
      Townsville          30   2565 3224
      Learmonth           23   4454 3233
      Culgoora            22   2554 3224
      Canberra            25   3554 3234
      Hobart              20   3453 3233
      Casey(Ant)          31   4564 3324
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 MAR : 
      Townsville           7   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            74   (Active)
      Canberra            77   (Active)
      Hobart             113   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             45                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             21   1233 4445     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar    20    Active, isolated minor storm periods. 
12 Mar    15    Unsettled to active 
13 Mar    13    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 9 March and 
is current for interval 10-11 March. Coronal hole induced geomagnetic 
activity expected to continue today. Recurrence suggests that 
activity should have a declining trend by 12 Mar. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderately degraded conditions at high latitudes 
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream induced activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Mar    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
12 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
13 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Isolated depressions of 10-15% may be experienced for 
Southern Aus/NZ regiuon MUFs after local dawn over the next few 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 439 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:   176000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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