[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 10 10:30:43 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Only minor B- to C-class flare activity observed today.
Considerable radio noise activity has been observed. The Earth
entered the anticipated coronal hole wind stream as expected
around mid-UT day 09 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 15 2223 3444
Darwin 15 2223 3444
Townsville 15 2224 3434
Learmonth 20 1223 3554
Culgoora 12 1223 3434
Canberra 15 2223 3445
Hobart 17 2323 4444
Casey(Ant) 17 -4-3 3334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 MAR :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 6 1122 2321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 25 Active
11 Mar 20 Active
12 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 9 March and
is current for interval 10-11 March. The Earth entered the
anticipated coronal hole wind stream around mid-UT day 09 Mar.
Solar wind speed has increased rapidly since that time and is
increasing beyond 600 km/s at the time of report issue. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has showm
moderate fluctuations of +/- 10 nT about neutral. Geomagnetic
conditions have been at mostly unsettled to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods. Expect increasing minor storm
intervals on days one and two, with the possibility of isolated
major storm periods, especially at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Fair Fair Fair-Poor
11 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable minor daytime depressions observed at low latitudes
yesterday. The Earth is now under the influence of a high-speed
coronal hole wind stream. Degraded HF conditions expected at
mid to high latitudes on days one and two. Possible further minor
degradations on day three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Variable minor depressions local day,
Near predicted monthly values local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% local day, extended periods of
disturbance local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 30 PNG/N Aus near predicted monthly values. S Aus/NZ
regions depressed 10-20% at times.
11 Mar 35 PNG/N Aus near predicted monthly values. S Aus/NZ
regions depressed 10-20% at times.
12 Mar 35 Depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable minor daytime depressions observed N Aus region,
and may be experienced again today. Extended periods of disturbance
observed Antarctic region overnight in association with geomagnetic
activity. The Earth is now under the influence of a high speed
coronal hole wind stream, and degraded HF conditions are expected
S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions next two to three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 64700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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