[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 29 09:26:19 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind speed further increased over the past 24
hours from 325 to 450km/sec due to a coronal hole wind stream.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) was mildly southward 00-01UT, then mildly northward. Solar
region 635 which produced some minor activity during this transit
is now rotating off disk, round the south western solar limb.
This region was reported by SEC to have produced a non-Earth
directed coronal mass ejection early in the UT day and is due
back to the eastern solar limb aorund 11 July. Two solar regions
near the eastern solar limb, just north and south of the solar
equator show some flare potential, but flare activity remains
low at this time.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 2222 2122
Darwin 8 2322 2132
Townsville 8 1213 2232
Learmonth 6 2222 2123
Culgoora 4 1112 2122
Canberra 6 2222 2122
Hobart 5 1213 1123
Casey(Ant) 7 3222 2123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 JUN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2112 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 13 Unsettled to Active
30 Jun 12 Unsettled
01 Jul 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Northward IMF conditions reducing effect of moderately
elevated solar wind speeds from coronal hole. Isolated active
periods possible today.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF communications quality
may be experienced today at high latitudes then improving. Mostly
normal HF conditions expected for other latitudes over coming
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15-30% over the UT day.
Some spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few
days with possible isolated slight depressions for southern Aus/NZ
region briefly after local dawn.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 60100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list