[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 28 09:18:39 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind magnetic parameters show that the Earth entered
the anticipated coronal hole wind stream around 12UT on 25 June.
However, Solar wind speed has only sightly increased from 300
to appoximately 340 km/sec. The north-south component of the
interplantery magnetic field (IMF) was neutral for much of the
UT day, then fluctuating south by up to 8nT at end of the UT
day. This fluctuation may be associated with a presumed weak
mass ejection associated with a Type II radio sweep and C2 flare
from solar region 635 on 24 June. Solar region 635 will depart
the solar disk in the coming day, leaving very few spots remaining
visible on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 0100 1011
Darwin 1 1100 0112
Townsville 1 1100 0011
Learmonth 0 0100 1001
Culgoora 2 0110 1111
Canberra 1 0100 1011
Hobart 1 0100 1111
Casey(Ant) 2 1200 1011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 JUN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1101 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 16 Unsettled to Active
29 Jun 13 Unsettled
30 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Chance for active periods first half of UT day if mildly
southward IMF conditions persist. 27 day recurrent patterns suggest
that a mild increase in geomagnetic activity can be expected
for the next couple of days, then the field is expected to become
quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions observed at high latitudes.
Mild to moderate degradation in HF communications quality may
be experienced over the next two days then improving. Mostly
normal HF conditions expected for other latitudes over coming
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed 15% to near normal, spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few
days with possible isolated slight depressions for southern Aus/NZ
region briefly after local dawn.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 81400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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