[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Region 
635 was the source of the only C-Class event of the day, a C2.0 
at 1710UT, as well some B-Class events. Region 635 showed no 
significant change in size or magnetic complexity, while Region 
634 underwent a small amount of decay in its spot size. The solar 
wind speed fell from a maximum of 420km/s at the beginning of 
the day to 370km/s at the time of this report. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was south 
from 0000UT to 1800UT with a maximum value of -5nT. Solar activity 
is expected to remain low over the next few days, with Regions 
634 and 635 still capable of producing an isolated M-Class event. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 1011
      Darwin               3   1111 1112
      Townsville           2   1101 1011
      Learmonth            1   1011 0000
      Culgoora             2   1111 1011
      Canberra             0   0001 1000
      Hobart               1   1001 1011
      Casey(Ant)           3   1212 1010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1111 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was quiet over the last 24 
hours. These conditions are expected to continue over the next 
few days with the slight chance of isolated unsettled periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal for low,mid 
and high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jun    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun    45    near predicted monthly values 
23 Jun    45    near predicted monthly values 
24 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions for the next few days, with 
near predicted monthly values over all regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    83800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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