[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 21 09:51:11 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Region
635 was the source of two C-Class as well as some minor B-Class
events. The two C-Class events were a C2.0 at 1325UT and C1.0
at 1630UT. Region 635's magnetic composition remains complex,
while Region 634 remains unchanged. Both regions have shown no
significant change in spot size over the last 24hrs. The solar
wind speed was on average 430km/s for most of the day untill
1500UT where it then began to decline to be at 410km/s at the
time of this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/- 2nT throughout the
entire day. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the
next few days, with Regions 634 and 635 capable of producing
an isolated M-Class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 1110 0011
Darwin 3 2211 0112
Townsville 2 1111 0012
Learmonth 2 1110 0110
Culgoora 1 0110 0012
Canberra 1 1010 0011
Hobart 1 1010 0010
Casey(Ant) 3 1121 0110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 JUN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2222 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was quiet over the last 24
hours. These conditions are expected to continue over the next
few days with the chance of isolated unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal for low,mid
and high latitudes, with the chance of minor depressions possible
at higher latitudes over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 50 near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values
23 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected to continue over the
next 2 days, with near predicted monthly values over all regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 93400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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