[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 19 09:40:09 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Only
one C-class event was observed, a C1.8 class flare originating
from region 635 at 1620UT, along with a minor B-class event from
both regions 634 and 635. Region 635's magnetic composition remains
complex and has the potential for producing possible M-class
events. Both regions 634 and 635 remain unchanged in thier size
though. The solar wind speed was steady for most of the day at
around 500km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/- 5nT for the entire
UT day. Solar activity is expected to remin low over the next
few days, with the slight chance of a possible M class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 1212 3211
Darwin 5 2112 2212
Townsville 4 1212 2111
Learmonth 7 1222 3211
Culgoora 5 1222 2122
Canberra 7 1213 3211
Hobart 7 1113 3211
Casey(Ant) 9 3223 3212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 JUN :
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 48 (Unsettled)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1322 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 11 Quiet to unsettled
20 Jun 11 Quiet to unsettled
21 Jun 11 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was quiet over the last 24
hours. These conditions are expected to continue over the next
few days with isolated unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on
low to mid latitudes. Minor to moderate degradations at high
latitudes are possible over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 50 near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 55 near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 55 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
over the next 2 days, with minor depressions and degradations
possible for Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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