[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jun             19 Jun             20 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Region 
634 was the source of a C1 class event at 0230UT and Region 635 
produced two minor B class events. The solar wind speed climbed 
from 450km/s at 0000UT to 600km/s at 0930UT after which it then 
fell to 500km/s for the rest of the day. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between 
+/- 5nT for the entire UT day. Region 634 and 635 remain unchanged 
in size and magnetic complexity, with region 635 being the most 
complex of the two. Solar activity is expected to remin low over 
the next few days, with regions 634 and 635 still capable of 
possible M class events. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1222 1122
      Darwin               4   1211 1122
      Townsville           4   1212 1122
      Learmonth            5   1222 1122
      Culgoora             5   1222 1121
      Canberra             4   1122 1122
      Hobart               4   1112 1121
      Casey(Ant)           9   3331 1222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 JUN : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2232 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was quiet over the last 24 
hours. These conditions are expected to continue over the next 
few days with isolated unsettled periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 
low to mid latitudes for the next two days, while minor to moderate 
degradations at high latitudes are possible during this period. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jun    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jun    50    near predicted monthly values 
19 Jun    50    near predicted monthly values 
20 Jun    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
over the next 2 days, with minor depressions and degradations 
possible for Southern Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 540 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   157000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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