[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Isolated M-class flares possible at times from region 
621. A weak Type II radio emission was observed on the Culgoora 
radio spectograph at 2308UT on 2 June. GOES imagery suggests 
the radio emission source was region 621. Solar wind speeds have 
declined over the past 24 hours from approximately 550km/s down 
to below 500km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue 
to decline over the next few days as the coronal hole rotates 
out of a geoeffective position. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
02/0425UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2322 2332
      Darwin               9   2321 2333
      Townsville          10   2322 2332
      Learmonth            9   2222 2332
      Culgoora             7   1222 2322
      Canberra            10   2322 2332
      Hobart              11   2322 3332
      Casey(Ant)          12   3332 2333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 JUN : 
      Townsville          12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           20   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            89   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              90   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16   3343 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun    12    Unsettled 
04 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Jun     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 27 May and 
is current for interval 1-3 June. Isolated active periods are 
possible for 3 June as a coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective 
position. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Slight degradation possible at times for mid to high 
latitudes for 3 June as coronal hole effects decline. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jun    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun    45    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
04 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Jun    55    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slight degradation possible at times for southern region 
for 3 June as coronal hole effects decline. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 566 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   153000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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