[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 04

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jun             03 Jun             04 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed moderately elevated at around 520km/sec 
over the UT day. The north south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was again near neutral over the UT day. No significant 
flare activity over past 24 hours. Some Type II radio emission 
on Culgoora Radio spectrograph from departing region 618. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 01 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   2333 4322
      Darwin              10   2233 3223
      Townsville          11   2233 3322
      Learmonth           12   3333 3223
      Culgoora            12   2233 4312
      Canberra            16   2343 4322
      Hobart              18   2343 5312
      Casey(Ant)          14   3433 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 JUN : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           16   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            67   (Active)
      Hobart              69   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14   4233 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jun    18    Unsettled to active 
03 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
04 Jun    10    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 27 May and 
is current for interval 1-3 June. Recurrence suggests that isolated 
active periods over are likely over the next two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
03 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slight degradation possible at times for mid to high 
latitudes over the next two days as the result of anticipated 
slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jun    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jun    40    10 to 15% below predicted monthly values 
03 Jun    40    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
04 Jun    45    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible over the two days, particularly 
after local dawn, southern Aus/NZ region only, as the result 
of anticipated slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 525 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   139000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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