[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 21 09:56:31 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M8/3B 1232UT probable lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Several C-class
and an M8.6 flares flares were recorded. The M8.6 flare from
region 652 at 1232UT was associated to a Tenflare, a
Type II (estimated shock velocity 485 km/s) and a Type IV
radio sweep. A CME observed in the LASCO imagery from the
same region at 1331UT also seems to be associated with this
flare. Solar wind speed remained almost steady between
500 and 550 km/s (approx.) almost the whole day. The
north-south component of the inter planetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained slightly positive with fluctuations for most
part of the day. The previosly observed faint CMEs may keep
the solar wind stream strengthened on 21 and 22 July. The
CME observed in association with the M8.6 flare on 20 July
may further strengthen the solar wind stream late on 22 July
or early on 23 July. Region 649 showed further decay whereas
region 652 continued to grow during the last 24 hours. Region
652 holds potential for major flare activities.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 2211 1122
Darwin 4 1211 1122
Townsville 5 2221 1122
Learmonth 6 2221 1132
Culgoora 4 2211 1122
Canberra 4 1211 2122
Hobart 4 1211 2122
Casey(Ant) 9 3320 ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 9 1323 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
22 Jul 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
23 Jul 22 Mostly quiet to active.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during the next two
days with some possibility of isolated active periods.
The CME observed on 20 July may enhance the geomagnetic
activity late on 22 July or early on 23 July to active
levels. However, due to the presence of two active regions
on the solar disk, strong CME/flare activities may be
observed. These possible activities may have potential to
strengthen the solar wind stream and increase geomagnetic
activity within the next few days beyond the otherwise
expected levels. In that case the forescast may need to
be changed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next two days, with minor/moderate degradations
possible at times at mid and high latitudes during this
period. Moderate degradations may be observed at mid and
high latitudes on 23 July due to an expected enhancement
in the geomagnetic activity on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 30% with periods of strong degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 68 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
22 Jul 68 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%.
23 Jul 62 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on
19 July and is current for interval 20-22 July (SWFs) .
HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in
Aus/NZ regions during the next two days with some
possibility of isolated minor degradation periods in
the southern regions on the first and second days of
this period. Minor to moderate degradations are possible
on the third day, especially in the Southern Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 46500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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