[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 20 09:46:23 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several C-class
flares were recorded from regions 649(S10W14) and 652(N05E44)
- the largest being a C4.6 at 0533UT from region 649. Lasco
imagery showed two CMEs from the western and north-western
limb between 0900 and 1400UT. Neither of these CMEs seem to
be earthward directed. However, the faint CMEs recorded in
association with the previously observed flares, may cause
some strengthening in the solar wind stream on 20 and/or 21
July. Solar wind speed remained almost steady around 360 km/s
during the first 15 hours of the UT day and then showed a
rapid rise to 500 km/s (approx.). This strengthening in the
solar wind stream was due to a solar sector boundary crossing.
The north-south component of the inter planetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained slightly negative for the first fifteen
hours of the UT day and then remained slightly positive during
the rest of the UT day. Region 649 showed some decay whereas
region 652 showed considerable growth during the last 24 hours.
Both these regions hold potential for major flare activities.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Mostly quiet.
Isolated unsettled periods observed.
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 1222 2212
Darwin 5 1222 1222
Townsville 5 1212 2212
Learmonth 5 1122 2213
Culgoora 5 1222 2212
Canberra 7 -223 2212
Hobart 5 1122 ----
Casey(Ant) 6 1321 1223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 1332 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
21 Jul 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
22 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during the next two
days with some possibility of isolated active periods.
However, due to the presence of two active regions on
the solar disk, strong CME/flare activities may be observed.
These possible activities may have potential to strengthen
the solar wind stream and increase geomagnetic activity
within the next few days beyond the otherwise expected
levels. In that case the forescast may need to be changed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next three days, with minor/moderate degradations
possible at times at mid and high latitudes on the first two
days of this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by upto 60% with periods of significant
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 63 near predicted monthly values
21 Jul 65 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
22 Jul 70 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 10 to
20%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in Aus/NZ regions during the next three days with some
possibility of isolated minor degradation periods in the
southern regions on the first and second days of this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 62700 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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