[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 15 09:55:59 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6/1N 0523UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1/SF 1816UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Two M-class and
several C-class flares were observed from regions 646(N12W73)
and 649(S10E52). The M-flares observed today were an M6.2
from region 646 at 0523UT and an M1.0 from region 649 at
1816UT. No significant radio bursts or CME activities were
associated to these flares. Solar wind speeds gradually
decreased from 550 to 450 km/s (approximately) during the
last 24 hours. The north-south component of the inter
planetary magnetic field (Bz) remained mostly slightly
southwards during the UT day today. The solar wind stream
may get strengthened on 15 July due to a possible glancing
blow from an anticipated CME arrival. Regions 646 and 649
hold potential for M-class activities.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 1221 2111
Darwin 5 1311 1121
Townsville 5 1222 2121
Learmonth 6 1321 2212
Culgoora 4 1221 2111
Canberra 4 1221 2111
Hobart 4 1221 2110
Casey(Ant) 7 2322 2111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 JUL :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 4342 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
16 Jul 17 Unsettled to active
17 Jul 10 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 14 July and
is current for interval 15-16 July. Mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 15 July. However, an anticipated
glancing blow from a CME may cause a rise in the geomagnetic
activity to active levels on 15 and/or 16 July. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions,
particularly on mid and high latitudes, are possible on
15 and 16 July due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic
activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near perdicted monthly values to enhanced upto 35%
with periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 44 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
16 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
17 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 14 July
and is current for interval 15-16 July. Minor to mild degradation
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may be observed at times
on 15 and 16 July, particulary in the Southern Aus/NZ regions
due to an ancticipated rise in geomagnetic activity during this
period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 156000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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