[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 14 09:55:21 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED** MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6/-- 0017UT confirmed lower West Pacific
M5/1N 0848UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M6/1B 1932UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
M2/-- 1208UT possible lower European
M1/SF 1838UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Further significant flare activity is possible from
solar regions 646 and 649. The CMEs associated with the flare
activity over the past 24 hours are only expected to have a glancing
impact on the Earth. Solar wind speeds have remained elevated
over the past 24 hours with speeds around 550-650 km/s. Solar
wind speeds are expected to decline slowly over the next 24 hours,
with possibility of increasing again on 15 July with a glancing
impact from recent CMEs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 3332 1222
Darwin 9 3332 1222
Townsville 11 4332 1222
Learmonth 10 3332 2222
Culgoora 9 3231 1232
Canberra 9 3232 1232
Hobart 7 3221 2222
Casey(Ant) 11 3332 1232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 4322 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 12 Quiet to unsettled
15 Jul 20 Mostly unsettled to active with the chance of
isolated minor storm periods.
16 Jul 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions expected for 14
July. The recent CME activity is only expected to have a glancing
impact on the Earth, with mostly unsettled to active and possible
isolated minor storm periods for 15 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
16 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected at times
for 15-16 July as the result of anticipated mildly increased
geomagnetic activity. Depressions of 10-20% are possible for
mid-high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 30 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 30 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 13 July
and is current for interval 13-16 July (SWFs) . Mildly degraded
HF conditions are expected at times for 15-16 July as the result
of anticipated mildly increased geomagnetic activity. Depressions
of 10-20% are possible for southern regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 498 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list