[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 2 09:30:58 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the
past 24 hours. Background solar X-ray flux remains low at A-levels.
There is a possibility of isolated C-class activity from regions
639 and 640, although both regions appear to be in slow decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 2233 2212
Darwin 7 1223 2211
Townsville 8 1233 2212
Learmonth 9 2233 2222
Culgoora 7 1133 2212
Canberra 9 2234 1211
Hobart 10 2234 2211
Casey(Ant) 11 3333 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 JUL :
Townsville 12 (Quiet)
Learmonth 20 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Hobart 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3233 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity remains mildly elevated above 500
km/s under the influence of a coronal hole, but commenced a gradual
decline over the second half of the UT day. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field has been mostly northward,
with minor southward excursions during the first half of the
UT day. An isolated interval of active conditions was observed
at S Aus latitudes around 10UT. Expect continuing quiet to unsettled
conditions on day one, with a possibility of isolated active
periods. Conditions should decline to mostly quiet on days two
and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next three
days. Possible isolated disturbances at high latitudes on day
one in association with geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by up to 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly normal to enhanced over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Evening spread-F observed S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions.
Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few days. Expect
overnight enhancements equatorial regions and possible evening
spread-F conditions S Aus/NZ regions. Possible isolated disturbances
at high latitudes, especially day one.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: A4.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 549 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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