[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 04

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jul             02 Jul             03 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the 
past 24 hours. Background solar X-ray flux has declined to A-levels. 
There is a possibility of isolated C-class activity from regions 
639 and 640. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2233 3112
      Darwin               9   2332 3122
      Townsville           7   1232 3112
      Learmonth           10   2333 3022
      Culgoora             9   2233 3112
      Canberra             9   2233 3112
      Hobart               9   2233 3112
      Casey(Ant)           8   3322 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 JUN : 
      Townsville           7   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           12   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            55   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              50   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20   4443 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jul    11    Unsettled 
02 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at mostly quiet to unsettled 
levels over the past 24 hours. Solar wind velocity remains mildly 
elevated at around 550 km/s under the influence of a coronal 
hole. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has 
been mostly northward, with brief southward excursions only. 
Expect similar conditions today, with mostly quiet conditions 
on days two and three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF communications quality 
may be experienced today at high latitudes then improving. Mostly 
normal HF conditions expected for other latitudes over coming 
days. Degradation at high latitudes in association with coronal 
hole high speed wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jun    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few 
days with possible isolated slight depressions for southern Aus/NZ 
region briefly after local dawn. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: A7.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 562 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   162000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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