[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 4 10:49:17 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. Only a few
B-class and low C-class flares were recorded, almost all
of these from region 536(S12E50).Today's largest flare
has been a C1.1 from region 536 at 1815UT. The anticipated
coronal hole effect seems to have strengthened the solar
wind stream earlier than expected as the solar wind
speed increased from 450 to 630 km/s (approx) during the
first four hours of the UT day today. The solar wind speed
then remained around 600 km/s (approx) for several hours
before decreasing to approximately 500 km/s by the time of
this report. The interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) kept
fluctuating between +8 and -10nT until 0900UT (approx). Bz
remained between the normal value and -6nT for most of the
time during the rest of the UT day by the time of this report.
Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at low levels
during the next three days although isolated M-flare may be
possible from region 536, which has shown further growth
during the last 24 hours. Region 536 is currently the largest
region on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Mostly unsettled to
active with minor storm periods recorded at some high latitude
locations.
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 17 3344 3233
Darwin 13 3333 3234
Townsville 17 3344 3233
Learmonth 16 3334 3333
Culgoora 15 2344 2233
Canberra 20 3354 3233
Hobart 19 3354 2233
Casey(Ant) 18 4--4 3234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 JAN :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 86 (Minor storm)
Hobart 88 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13 3222 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 30 Active to minor storm
05 Jan 30 Active to minor storm
06 Jan 25 Mostly active isolated minor storm periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 3 January
and is current for interval 4-5 January. The anticipated
coronal hole effect seems to have started earlier than
expected. The geomagnetic activity remained mostly unsettled
to active on 03 January UT day with isolated periods of minor
storm recorded at some high latitude locations. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain enhanced for approximately next
three days due to this coronal hole effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
05 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
06 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions may remain mildly to moderately
degraded during the next 3 days due to an anciticipated
continued rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 47
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
05 Jan 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
06 Jan 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
8%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 3 January
and is current for interval 4-5 January. Minor to moderate
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be
observed in Australian/NZ regions during the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 506 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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