[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 3 10:38:34 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. Several C-class
flares were recorded from region 536(S11E62), the largest
being a C2.8 at 0258UT. The solar wind stream has weakend
as anticipated due to the passage of the coronal hole effect.
The solar wind speed decreased from 560 to 450 km/s (approx)
during the UT day today. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) kept fluctuating between
+5 and -8nT almost the whole day, staying south for relatively
longer periods. Solar activity is expected to remain mostly
at low levels during the next three days although isolated
M-flare may be possible from region 536, which has shown
significant growth during the last 24 hours. Another coronal
hole has been reported to be taking geo-effective position.
The recurrent pattern does support these reports but since
the SOHO solar images are not available due to CCD Bakeout,
it is not possible at this stage to make more precise
predictions about the possible effects of this coronal hole.
However, the solar wind stream is expected to be strengthened
due to the effect of this coronal hole 04 January onwards.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 3222 2333
Darwin 10 3222 2333
Townsville 9 3222 2233
Learmonth 10 3222 2333
Culgoora 8 3222 2223
Canberra 11 3222 3333
Hobart 12 3322 3332
Casey(Ant) 17 4--3 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 JAN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Culgoora 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 72 (Active)
Hobart 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 27 3455 5433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 12 Quiet to unsettled
04 Jan 30 Active to minor storm
05 Jan 30 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: The current coronal hole effect seems to be
weakening now as anticipated. The geomagnetic activity
is diminishing. The geomagnetic activity is expected
to remain at quiet to unsettled levels on 03 January.
Another coronal hole is taking geoeffective position
and it may cause a rise in geomagnetic activity from
04 January onwards for a few days. Due to unavailablility
of SOHO images, more precise predictions about the possible
effects of this coronal hole cannot be made at this stage.
Active to isolated minor storm periods may be expected on
04 and 05 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
04 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
05 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on 03 January. HF conditions may remain degraded on 04 and
05 January due to an anciticipated rise in geomagnetic
activity starting on 04 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 47
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
04 Jan 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
05 Jan 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and
degradations in HF conditions may be observed especially
in Southern Australian/NZ regions on 04 and 05 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 548 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 202000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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