[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 11 10:22:41 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was steady at around 380-400km/sec
over past 24 hours, with mildly southward interplanetary magnetic
field conditions. No significant flare activity ove rthe past
24 hours. Two solar regions numbered 554 and 551 have the capability
of producing isolated low level M class events. A coronal hole
is now in the centre of the solar disk and the Earth is expected
to enter the wind stream from this hole around 11 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 2112 2212
Darwin 4 1111 2212
Townsville 4 1111 2213
Learmonth 6 2102 3212
Culgoora 4 1111 2212
Canberra 7 2212 3212
Hobart 7 1222 3212
Casey(Ant) 8 3--2 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 FEB :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 8 2112 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 16 Unsettled to active
12 Feb 18 Active
13 Feb 16 Active to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 10 February
and is current for interval 11-13 February. Geomagnetic field
expected to remain quiet to unsettled to be initially quiet/unsettled
today then increasing to active levels late in the UT day, due
to a solar coronal hole high speed wind stream. Chance for isolated
minor storm periods local night hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
12 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
13 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today for most of the UT
day today. A mild degradation in HF communications quality is
possible from late 11 to 13 Feb at mid to high latitudes due
to anticpated induced activity from coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 55 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15%
12 Feb 35 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected for first half
of UT day today. A mild degradation in HF conditions may be experienced
from late 11 to 13 Feb, southern Aus/NZ region, due to anticipated
effects from solar coronal hole wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 70800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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