[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 8 09:39:32 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar wind speed steadily declined over the UT day from
550 to 450km/sec. This indicates that the Earth is leaving the
broad coronal hole high speed wind stream which had produced
moderately elevated wind speed over the last 5-6 days. The Sun
has been flare quiet over the past 24 hours. However, an emission
at 10-15degrees south on the south-east solar limb in US SEC
SXI/SOHO EIT imagery possibly indicates that previously active
solar region 540 is returning to the solar disk. There is also
a chance for a flare from solar region 551, now located near
the centre of the solar disk. Isolated M class flares possible.
A transequatorial coronal hole is visible in the eastern solar
hemisphere in SOHO EIT 284 imagery. 27 day recurrent patterns
indicate that elevated solar wind speed conditions from this
hole will be experienced during interval 11-12 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 1123 2112
Darwin 4 1122 2112
Townsville 7 1123 3111
Learmonth 6 1123 2121
Culgoora 5 1123 2112
Canberra 7 2123 3112
Hobart 8 1233 3111
Casey(Ant) 12 3-43 2122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 FEB :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 85 (Minor storm)
Hobart 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 21 2544 3442
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: A declining trend in geomagnetic activity is expected
over the next two days, as the Earth moves out of the recent
coroal hole wind stream. The Earth is expected to enter another
coronal hole wind stream on 11 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions of 15% persisted longer than expected
after local dawn yesterday for southern Aus/NZ region. MUFs today
are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 587 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 206000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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