[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Feb             09 Feb             10 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: Solar wind speed steadily declined over the UT day from 
550 to 450km/sec. This indicates that the Earth is leaving the 
broad coronal hole high speed wind stream which had produced 
moderately elevated wind speed over the last 5-6 days. The Sun 
has been flare quiet over the past 24 hours. However, an emission 
at 10-15degrees south on the south-east solar limb in US SEC 
SXI/SOHO EIT imagery possibly indicates that previously active 
solar region 540 is returning to the solar disk. There is also 
a chance for a flare from solar region 551, now located near 
the centre of the solar disk. Isolated M class flares possible. 
A transequatorial coronal hole is visible in the eastern solar 
hemisphere in SOHO EIT 284 imagery. 27 day recurrent patterns 
indicate that elevated solar wind speed conditions from this 
hole will be experienced during interval 11-12 Feb. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1123 2112
      Darwin               4   1122 2112
      Townsville           7   1123 3111
      Learmonth            6   1123 2121
      Culgoora             5   1123 2112
      Canberra             7   2123 3112
      Hobart               8   1233 3111
      Casey(Ant)          12   3-43 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 FEB : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            85   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              48   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             21   2544 3442     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Feb    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: A declining trend in geomagnetic activity is expected 
over the next two days, as the Earth moves out of the recent 
coroal hole wind stream. The Earth is expected to enter another 
coronal hole wind stream on 11 Feb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Feb    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions of 15% persisted longer than expected 
after local dawn yesterday for southern Aus/NZ region. MUFs today 
are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 587 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   206000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.