[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 7 09:17:56 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speed started the UT day at around 560km/sec
then rose to 620km/sec near 09UT, then subsequently declined,
and is currently at around 500km/sec. The north south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field unexpectedly became moderately
southward by up to 10nT during the first half of the UT day.
The cause of the southward IMF conditions and increased wind
speed is unclear. However, an overall declining trend in wind
speed remains expected. The Sun has been relatively quiet over
the past 24 hours. Chance for isolated low level flare activity
from solar region 551. Also, previously flaring solar region
540,is due back to the south-east limb around 08 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 2333 3332
Darwin 12 1333 3322
Townsville 13 2333 3331
Learmonth 13 2333 3331
Culgoora 12 1333 2332
Canberra 12 2333 2332
Hobart 17 2344 3332
Casey(Ant) 19 --43 3342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 FEB :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 14 3334 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 12 Unsettled
08 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: An declining trend in geomagnetic activity is expected
over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild/moderate depressions probable briefly after local
dawn for southern Aus/NZ regions today, then near predicted monthly
values. Depression appears to be ionsospheric response to mild
geomagentic activity induced by unexpected southward interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) conditions. The IMF is now neutral therefore
depressed MUF conditions are not expected to persist.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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