[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Dec             17 Dec             18 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: A north-polar extension coronal hole is expected to 
increase solar wind speed in coming days. Solar wind conditions 
currently nominal. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated mildly southward (5nT) over the UT day. 
The Sun has been flare quiet over past 24 hours. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2241 1212
      Darwin               5   2131 1211
      Townsville           5   2130 1212
      Learmonth            7   2230 1323
      Culgoora             6   2230 1212
      Canberra            15   3--- ----
      Hobart               8   1341 1213
      Casey(Ant)          16   3-53 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   0123 2122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Dec    12    Unsettled 
17 Dec    18    active 
18 Dec    16    active 
COMMENT: Gradual increase in geomagnetic activity expected during 
16-18 Dec due to coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions at mid to high laitudes may become mild 
to moderately degraded ove rthe next two days due to coronal 
hole wind stream induced geomagnetic activity. Low to mid latitude 
conditions are expected to remain near normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Dec    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Dec    40    near predicted monthly values 
17 Dec    20    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Dec    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in 
most Aus/NZ regions for 16 Dec. Southern Aus/NZ regions may experience 
depressed MUFs after local dawn 17-18 Dec, due to anticipated 
activity induced from a solar coronal hole wind stream. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 405 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   112000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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