[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 15 10:32:48 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today as well.
Only three low B-class flares were observed from region
711(N13W75). The solar wind speed remained between 380 and
420 km/s by 1700UT, then gradually decreased to 360 km/s by
2100UT and stayed at this level during the rest of the UT
day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) showed minor to moderate fluctuations on both
sides of the normal value throughout the UT day. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels during
the next three days. A recurrent coronal hole may start
to strengthen the solar wind stream from 16 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet to unsettled,
isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 2233 3122
Darwin 7 2222 3122
Townsville 9 1233 3122
Learmonth 8 1232 3222
Culgoora 9 1233 3121
Canberra 7 2--- ----
Hobart 11 2333 3121
Casey(Ant) 13 ---- 4223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 4331 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 6 Quiet
16 Dec 10 Quiet to unsettled
17 Dec 18 Mostly unsettled, active periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels on 15 December. The activity may
rise to unsettled levels during the second half of 16 December
due to a possible strengthening of the solar wind stream by
the effect of a recurrent coronal hole. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to rise to mostly unsettled levels with
possibility of active periods on 17 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
at most locations on 16 December. Minor to moderate depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be observed on
mid and high latitude locations on 16 and 17 December due to
an expected rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec 48 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
16 Dec 40 near predicted monthly values
17 Dec 34 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions on 15 December. Minor to moderate
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may
be observed in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 16 and 17 December
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 46700 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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