[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 11 10:24:28 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only two
low B-class flares were observed. The solar wind speed
first showed a gradual decrease from 400 km/s to 370 km/s
by 0300UT, and then showed gradual increase to 440 km/s by
0600UT. The solar wind speed then gradually decreased to
390 km/s by 1900 UT and again showed a rapid increase to
450 km/s. The solar wind speed is around 470 km/s at the
time of this report. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed slightly southwards
for most of the time today and turned northwards around
1900UT when the solar wind stream got strengthened. The CME,
that was associated to the C2.5 flare on 08 December, is
expected to reach the earth during late hours on 11 December
and it has potential for moderate to significant strengthening
in the solar wind stream on 11 and 12 December. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels during the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 2232 2333
Darwin 10 2232 2334
Townsville 9 1231 2334
Learmonth 9 2222 2333
Culgoora 8 1231 2323
Canberra 9 2232 2324
Hobart 11 2332 2333
Casey(Ant) 7 ---2 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2114 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 20 Quiet to unsettled in early hours, active to
minor storm with possibility of isolated major
storm in late hours.
12 Dec 30 Active to minor storm
13 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 10 December
and is current for interval 11-12 December. An anticipated
arrival of a CME may raise the geomagnetic activity to Active
to Minor Storm with some possibility of Isolated Major Storm
periods late on 11 December and also on 12 December. The
geomagnetic activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled
levels thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
12 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity
late on 11 December and also on 12 December, minor to
significant degradations in HF conditions are possible on
high latitudes during this period. Minor to moderate
degradations are also possible on low and mid latitudes
during this period of enhanced geomagnetic activity. HF
coditions are expected to return to mostly normal
in most locations thereafter.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
12 Dec 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on
10 December and is current for interval 11-12 December.
Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in
HF conditions may be observed during late hours on 11 December
and also on 12 December across Aus/NZ regions. HF conditions
are expected to return to normal thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 77900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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