[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 10 10:56:31 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Only one C1.1 flare
was observed at 0012UT from region 710(S07E33). The solar
wind speed first showed a gradual decrease from 450 km/s to
400 km/s by mid-day, and then showed gradual increase back
to 450 km/s by the time of this report. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed
minor fluctuations on both sides of the normal value throughout
the UT day- staying southwards for relatively longer periods
of time. The C2.5 flare, that was observed in association
with a Type II event on 08Dec/1959UT from region 709 near
the central meridian, has also been associated to a possibly
full halo CME. Due to the limited LASCO imagery of the CME
available at this stage, it is not possible to mention any
further details about the characteristics of this CME. This
CME is expected to reach the earth during late hours on
11 December and it has potential for moderate to significant
strengthening in the solar wind stream on 11 and 12 December.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
during the next three days with possibility of isolated
C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 1112 2222
Darwin 5 1112 2223
Townsville 4 1112 2123
Learmonth 5 2112 2222
Culgoora 4 1112 1122
Canberra 5 1212 2222
Hobart 6 1222 2222
Casey(Ant) 9 3-32 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3232 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Dec 20 Quiet to unsettled in early hours, active to
minor storm with possibility of isolated major
storm in late hours.
12 Dec 30 Active to minor storm with possibility of isolated
major storm.
COMMENT: The geomagentic activity is expected to remain
low at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on 10 December.
An anticipated arrival of a CME may raise the geomagnetic
activity to Active to Minor Storm with possibility of
Isolated Major Storm periods late on 11 December and
also on 12 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
12 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: Due to an expected continued decline in the
geomagnetic activity during the next 24 hours, the HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on most
locations during this period. However, due to an anticipated
rise in geomagnetic activity late on 11 December and also
on 12 December, minor to significant degradations in HF
conditions are possible on high latitudes during this period.
Minor to moderate degradations are also possible on low and
mid latitudes during this period of enhanced geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 40 Near predicted monthly values to 5% enhanced.
11 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
12 Dec 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across most Aus/NZ regions during the next 24 hours. Minor
to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed during late hours on 11 December
and also on 12 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 137000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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