[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Dec             09 Dec             10 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have remained elevated during the 
past 24 hours, in the 500-550km/s range, probably due to a geoeffective 
coronal hole rotating off the west limb. The IMF Bz component 
has been fluctuating around zero with ~5nT excursions although 
slightly more negative than positive, possibly causing sporadic 
merging of the IMF and geomagnetic fields. Solar wind density 
and temperature are nominal with medium level fluctuations in 
density. No flare activity has been observed. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3233 2333
      Darwin              10   2223 2333
      Townsville          12   3233 2333
      Learmonth           11   2223 3333
      Culgoora             9   2222 2332
      Canberra            10   3222 2332
      Hobart              13   3332 3332
      Casey(Ant)          21   4-44 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             19   1344 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
09 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mildly elevated solar wind speeds and periods of southward 
IMF have resulted in some unsettled periods during 7 December. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to mostly quiet levels 
for the next few days as the geoeffective coronal hole rotates 
off the solar western limb. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions were observed at times 
during 7 December for mid-high latitudes due to mildly elevated 
geomagnetic activity, mainly due to southward periods of IMF 
Bz and resultant merging with the geomagnetic field causing enhanced 
convection of the polar cap ionosphere. Isolated minor depressions 
possible at times for 8 December for high latitudes if Bz continues 
intermittently southward, otherwise mostly normal HF conditions 
expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Dec    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Dec    30    near predicted monthly values 
09 Dec    25    near predicted monthly values 
10 Dec    25    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   144000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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