[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 7 10:16:17 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have remained mildly elevated during
the past 24 hours ranging from 400-500km/s with the IMF fluctutaing
up to 10nT southward at times. Solar wind parameters are expected
to return to nominal values over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 2233 3334
Darwin 12 2222 4334
Townsville 12 2222 3344
Learmonth 14 2233 4334
Culgoora 11 2232 3334
Canberra 13 2333 3335
Hobart 15 3333 3334
Casey(Ant) 17 --43 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 0142 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 15 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
08 Dec 12 Quiet to unsettled
09 Dec 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Mildly elevated solar wind speeds and periods of southward
IMF have resulted in active periods during 6 December. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to decline to mostly quiet levels for the
next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions were observed at times
during 6 December for mid-high latitudes due to mildly elevated
geomagnetic activity. Isolated minor depressions possible at
times for 7 December for mid-high latitudes, otherwise mostly
normal HF conditions expected for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec 45 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 60 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
09 Dec 60 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions were observed at times
during 6 December for southern Aus/NZ regions due to mildly elevated
geomagnetic activity. Isolated minor depressions possible at
times for 7 December for southern Aus/NZ regions, otherwise mostly
normal HF conditions expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: 8 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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