[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 31 09:59:00 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 100/48 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
region 663 producing two C-Class events, a C2.4 at 0305UT, a
C1.0 at 1805UT as well as some minor B-Class events. A TypeII
radio sweep was observed on the Culgoora Spectrograph in conjunction
with the C2.4 event. LASCO C3 imagery did not indicate any significant
CME. Solar wind speed continued to decline at the beginning of
the UT day after receiving the initial shock from the 27/8 eruptive
prominence, where it remained steady at 380km/s, untill 2000UT
when it rose sharply to be at 420km/s at the time of this report.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) was southward from 0000UT to 2000UT with a maximum of -15nT
in accordance with the shock arrival. No significant growth was
observed in any current sunspot sizes and thier magnetic complexity
remains non-complex.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 656 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 1 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 19 3223 4535
Darwin 16 3223 4435
Townsville 19 3223 4535
Learmonth 19 3223 4535
Culgoora 20 3223 4544
Canberra 20 3223 4545
Hobart 23 3234 4545
Casey(Ant) 15 3334 3323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 2202 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 20 active
01 Sep 16 active
02 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Active
over the last 24 hours with isolated periods of Minor Storm levels
arising from the arrival of a CME from an Eruptive Prominence
that occured on 27/8. These conditions are expected to continue
for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
01 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are possible over the next 2
days as minor gemoagnetic storm conditions from a CME shock arrival
over most regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Sep 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
02 Sep 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected after local dawn for Southern
AUS/NZ regions. These conditions are expected to continue for
the next 2 days with the onset of minor geomagnetic storm conditions
from a CME arrival from 27/8.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 55300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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