[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 04

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Aug             31 Aug             01 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours, 
with only minor B-class events produced by region 664. The solar 
wind speed jumped from 400km/s to 450km/s at 0920UT as a glancing 
blow from an eruptive prominence observed on 27/8 arrived. The 
solar wind speed then declined to be 380km/s at the time of this 
report. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) ranged between 0nT to 10nT with a notable step increase 
in its overall magnitude was also observed at 0920UT. No significant 
change was observed in any current sunspot sizes or the magnetic 
complexity of any regions on disk over the last 24hrs. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1202 1112
      Darwin               4   1102 2223
      Townsville           7   2203 2222
      Learmonth            5   1103 2213
      Culgoora             4   1212 1212
      Canberra             3   1102 1111
      Hobart               3   1102 1111
      Casey(Ant)           6   3322 1001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             12   2343 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled over 
the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next two 
days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected over most regions 
for the next 2 days, with the chance of isolated degradation 
periods. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Aug    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Aug    45    near predicted monthly values 
31 Aug    50    near predicted monthly values 
01 Sep    50    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected over most Aus/NZ regions 
for the next 2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
       X-ray background: A7.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    80300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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