[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 22 09:55:13 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. No significant
event was recorded. The solar wind speed showed a gradual increase
from 380 km/s to 500 km/s (approx.) by late hours of the UT-day
and then decreased to 450 km/s during the last one hour. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
remained mostly slightly to moderately negative during the day.
The solar wind stream may weaken slightly on 22 August and then
get strengthened again from 23 August due to a coronal hole taking
geo-effective position around this time. Regions 661(N07W34),
whcich is currently the largest region on the solar disk, remained
stable during the last 24 hours, whereas the region 664(S10E24)
showed some growth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods.
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 2232 2223
Darwin 8 2232 2222
Townsville 7 2232 2213
Learmonth 9 2232 2233
Culgoora 8 2232 2222
Canberra 11 2342 2222
Hobart 9 2242 2223
Casey(Ant) 7 2--- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 AUG :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 3334 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
23 Aug 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible.
24 Aug 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible.
COMMENT: As expected the geomagnetic activity showed enhancements
upto Active levels today due to a strengthened solar wind stream
and sustained periods of negative Bz. The geomagnetic activity
may again show enhancements starting from 23 August due to an
anticipated coronal hole effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next three days with some possibility of minor to
moderate depressions and degradations at high latitudes on 23
August and 24 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of significant depressions and
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 70 Near monthly predicted values to enhanced 10%.
23 Aug 64 near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 60 Near monthly predicted values to depressed 5%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal during
the next 2 days in most Aus/NZ regions. However, minor depressions
may be observed at times in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on 23
and 24 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 89900 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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